IMF对全球经济增长持乐观态度

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IMF对全球经济增长持乐观态度


The IMF says the U.S job market is starting to show signs of life.

国际货币基金组织（ IMF ） 称美国的就业市场正在显示出复苏的迹象。

Factory output is up sharply from recessionary lows and the American consumers are spending more.

工厂的产量正在迅速走出经济危机的低谷，美国消费者正在消费更多。

There’s also good news from Europe where coordinated efforts by the European Union may have eliminated the threat of Greek default and lowered borrowing cost in other high debt countries.

从欧洲也传来好消息，由欧盟协调的行动可能已经消除了希腊违约的威胁，并且降低了其他债台高筑的国家的借贷成本。

But IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard says the global economic picture is complicated. “Things have quietly down since but an uneasy calm remains. One has the feeling that at any moment things could well get very bad again.”

但是国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家 Olivier Blanchard 说全球经济形势还是很复杂。他说： “自从经济危机以来，许多问题都已经过去了，但是令人不安的平静还存在。 人们还有感觉，就是说问题还可能在任何时间再次出来。”

Analysts point to Spain as a potential risk. Yields for Spanish bonds have doubled since March on speculation that the Europe’s fourth largest economy might seek financial support.

分析家们指出西班牙是一个风险， 由于推测西班牙这个欧洲第四大的经济体会寻求财政支持，西班牙债券的收益率从 3 月份以来已经翻番了。

But William Hobbs from VP Research says that’s an unlikely scenario. “Spain is not Greece. Spain has, you know a viable albeit, you know open-to-reform economy and they have, you know, globally respected businesses. And generally, you know, the economy which we think will eventually see it through its dark times to come.”

但是 VP 研究机构的 Williams Hobbs 说这种情况是不太可能的。 “西班牙并不是希腊。 西班牙拥有开放的改革的经济，还有在全球都受到尊重的企业。 总之，我们认为西班牙的经济将最终通过这段黑暗的时间并重新起来。”

The IMF sees promise in developing economies, particularly those in Asia which are projected to grow 7.5% this year. China’s growth will likely slow slightly to 8.2%. But the pace is expected to accelerate in the Middle East and North Africa as oil prices continue to rise.

国际货币基金组织在发展中的经济体，特别是亚洲看到了发展的前景，预计亚洲今年的增长将达到 7.5% ， 中国今年的增长将可能放慢到 8.2%， 但是由于油价的持续增长，预计中东和北非的经济增长将加速。

Improvements are also seen in Sub Saharan Africa and South Africa where the economic output is likely to expand 5.5%.

在撒哈拉以南非洲和南部非洲也能看到经济的改善，那里的经济增长将估计能达到 5.5% 。

Still Olivier Blanchard of the IMF sees reason for caution. “For many countries, the challenges come mainly from the outside in the form of lower exports to advanced countries, because of the low growth there of the volatility of commodity prices which affects both exporters and importers and the high volatility of capital flows.”

国际货币基金组织的 Olivier Blanchard 还是认为需要谨慎： “对许多发展中国家来说，主要的挑战来自于外部，比如对发达国家出口的下降，这是因为发达国家经济增长乏力，商品价格的不稳定既会影响发展中国家出口也影响发达国家的进口，还有就是资金流的高度不稳定。”

The IMF’s report comes as the 187 nation institution and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, prepare to hold annual spring meetings in Washington.

国际货币基金组织的报告出台之时，正是这个有 187 个国家成员的组织与其贷款姐妹组织，即世界银行，准备在华盛顿召开年度的春季会议的时候。