阅读理解100-33

阿邱

On the face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year, as reported in this year's AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS, should be cause for rejoicing. Indeed, it is, for it means there are fewer people to treat, and fewer to pass the infection on, than was previously thought. But the fall is not a real fall. Rather, it is due to a change in the way the size of the epidemic is estimated.

If you factor in that change, the number of infected individuals has actually risen since last year, by 500,000. Yet even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS. As treatment programmes are rolled out around the world, death rates are falling. According to the revised figures, the lethal peak, of 2.2m a year, was in 2005. Now the figure is 2.1m. Since the only way for an infected person to drop out of the statistics in reality (as opposed to by sleight of statistical hand) is for him to die, such increased survivorship inevitably pushes up the total size of the epidemic.

The best news of all, however, is that the new figures confirm what had previously been suspected—that the epidemic has peaked. The highest annual number of new infections around the world was 3.4m in 1998. That figure has now fallen to 2.5m.

Both the change in the death rate and the change in the infection rate are partly a consequence of the natural flow and ebb of any epidemic infection. But they are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, who have persuaded millions of people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, as they have also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.

The revision of the figures is mainly a result of better data-collection methods, particularly in India (which accounts for half the downward revision) and five African countries (which account for another fifth). In India many more sampling points have been established, and in all countries better survey methods, relying on surveyors knocking on doors rather than asking questions at clinics, have gathered data from more representative samples.

Sceptics will feel vindicated by the revision. They have suspected for a while that the older survey methods were biased, and that the inflation thus produced was tolerated because it helped twang the heart-strings of potential donors. However, the structures for collecting and distributing money to combat AIDS are now well established, and accurate data are crucial if that money is not to be misdirected. The new information also means that the goal of treatment for all who need it will be easier and cheaper to achieve. The WHO and UNAIDS are planning to publish a report on the matter early next year, but Paul De Lay, UNAIDS's director of evidence, monitoring and policy, says that the financial requirements for 2010 will probably be about 5% less than previously estimated, and that by 2015 that figure will have risen to 10%. Good news for everyone, then, donors and sufferers alike.

1. Though the number of infected individuals has risen, it is still worth rejoicing because_____
[A] the number of people who are dying from AIDS has decreased.
[B] the total size of the epidemic is shrinking in a significant extent.
[C] it is only a rise in the sense of statistics, instead of a real number.
[D] in the paradoxical world of AIDS bad news can turn out to be good news.
2. About the changes in the death rate and the infection rate of HIV, which one of the following statements is NOT true?
[A] Any epidemic will naturally has such changes.
[B] They are mainly aroused by the new statistic methods.
[C] They clearly mirror of the essential achievements of public-health workers.
[D] The death rate has been greatly suppressed due to massive implementation of treatment programmes.
3. The word “vindicatde” (Line 1, Paragraph 6) most probably means_____
[A] confused.
[B] clarified.
[C] doubting.
[D] annoyed.
4. By 2015, the financial requirements will _____
[A] have risen by 10% more than what have been previously estimated.
[B] be 10% of what have been previously estimated.
[C] be 10% less than previously estimated.
[D] be 15% less than previously estimated.
5. Towards the revision, the author’s attitude can be said to be_____
[A] negative.
[B] positive.
[C] indifferent.
[D] neutral.

阿邱

文章剖析：
这篇文章介绍了艾滋病统计新方法实施带来的变化。第一段讲述根据新的统计方法对于艾滋病数量带来的变化；第二段讲述着这种统计方法带来的死亡率变化；第三段讲述数据修改证实了一些猜测；第四段讲述数字的变化也反映了公共卫生做出的贡献；第五段讲述数据修改的途径；第六段讲述正确数据的重要性。
词汇注释：
factor in v. 计算入内        sleight n. 诡计，手法
ebb n. 衰落        vindicate v. 证明…正确
twang v. 拨动弦声

难句突破：
(1)        On the face of things, a fall in the number of people infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2m over the course of a single year, as reported in this year's AIDS epidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS, should be cause for rejoicing.
[主体句式]A fall should be cause for rejoicing.
[结构分析] 这是一个简单句。On the face of things是句子的状语，而as 引导的定语从句是用来修饰前面的a fall in the number…。
[句子译文] 世界卫生组织和UNAIDS报告的本年度艾滋病最新数据表明，在短短一年的时间内感染HIV(引发艾滋病的病毒)的人数从3950万人减少到3320万人，表面上来看这确实令人欣喜。
(2) But they are also a reflection of the hard graft of public-health workers in many countries, who have persuaded millions of people to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, as they have also created the medical infrastructure needed to distribute anti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do become infected.  
[主体句式] But they are also a reflection of …
[结构分析] 这是一个复合句, 表语的定语结构比较复杂；在该定语中，who引导的定语从句修饰前面的workers，后面such as结构用来修饰risky behaviour； such as后面是两个并列的成分， 一个为动名词短语，一个是句子；在这个并列成分的句子中，有一个以that引导的定语从句用来修饰drugs。
[句子译文] 但是也反映了许多公共卫生工作者的努力，他们成功说服了成百万上千万的人们改变或者放弃危险的性行为、如没有任何保护措施的性行为，他们还建立了医疗基础措施来分发反逆转药物，这种药物可以让那些已经被感染的患者症状消失。
题目分析：
1. Though the number of infected individuals has risen, it is still worth rejoicing because_____        1. 尽管感染艾滋病的人数上升了，但是还是值得高兴，因为_____
[A] the number of people who are dying from AIDS has decreased.        [A] 死于艾滋病的人数减少了。
[B] the total size of the epidemic is shrinking in a significant extent.        [B] 这种传染病整体的数量下降了。
[C] it is only a rise in the sense of statistics, instead of a real number.        [C] 这只是统计上的增加，而不是实际数目的增加。
[D]in the paradoxical world of AIDS bad news can turn out to be good news.        [D] 在荒谬、是非颠倒的艾滋病世界中，坏消息也能变成好消息。
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆☆☆☆
[分析] 推理题。本题针对的是文章的第一段和第二段。文章第二段提到，虽然感染的人数上升了，但并不是坏消息，因为随着全世界医疗水平的提高，爱滋病死亡率下降了。这个上升的数据对应的是死亡人数的减少，因此，选项中A符合题意。B选项显然是错误的，因为整体染病的人数还在上升，而下降的是增加人数的比率。C选项是对第一段“但这个数量的减少却不是真正的减少，而是因为评估该传染病数量的方法发生了改变”的误解。D选项是对第二段“Yet even that is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS”的曲解，选项的表述过于绝对，而原文的语气没有这么肯定。
2. About the changes in the death rate and the infection rate of HIV, which one of the following statements is NOT true?        2. 关于HIV死亡率和感染率的变化，下列哪个选项是错误的?  
[A] Any epidemic will naturally has such changes         [A] 任何传染病都会很自然地有这样的变化。
[B] They are mainly aroused by the new statistic methods.        [B] 这些变化主要是因为新的统计方法引起的。
[C] They clearly mirror of the essential achievements of public-health workers.        [C] 这些变化清楚地反映了公共卫生工作人员的重要成绩。
[D] The death rate has been greatly suppressed due to massive implementation of treatment programmes.        [D] 由于大规模地实施了各种治疗项目，因此死亡率得到了极大的控制。
[答案] B
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 细节题。选项A，第四段提到，死亡率和感染率所发生的变化一部分原因是由于每种传染病都会有这样自然的起伏。选项B，第五段提到，数据的变化主要是由于采用了更好的数据收集方法，而不是统计方法。因此B是错误的，D是正确的。选项C，第五段提到了这一点。那么，选项B是正确答案。
3. The word “vindicatde” (Line 1, Paragraph 6) most probably means_____        3. “vindicated”(第六段第一行)这个词最有可能的意思是_____
[A] confused.        [A] 迷惑的 。
[B] clarified.        [B] 澄清的。
[C] doubting.        [C] 怀疑的。
[D] annoyed.        [D] 懊恼的。
[答案]B
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 猜词题。在第六段中，根据上下文，持怀疑态度者最开始怀疑老的调查方法有偏颇，但是现在新的方比较先进、科学，他们的疑虑应该打消了。因此，选项B最为符合题意。
4. By 2015, the financial requirements will _____        4. 到2015年,财政需求将会_____
[A] have risen by 10% more than what have been previously estimated.        [A] 比先前估计的上升10%。
[B] be 10% of what have been previously estimated.        [B] 是先前估计的10%。
[C] be 10% less than previously estimated.        [C] 比先前估计的少10%。
[D] be 15% less than previously estimated.        [D] 比先前估计的少15%。
[答案]C
[难度系数] ☆☆
[分析] 细节题。第六段中原文指出，到2010年财政需求可能要比先前估计的少 5%，而到2015年这个数字将涨到10%。那么也就是说，到了2015年，财政需求要比先前估计的少10%。选项C为正确答案。
5. Towards the revision, the author’s attitude can be said to be_____        5. 对于这次修订,作者的态度是_____
[A] negative.        [A] 否定的。
[B] positive.        [B] 肯定的。
[C] indifferent.        [C] 不关心的。
[D] neutral.        [D] 中立的。
[答案]B
[难度系数] ☆
[分析] 态度题。对于这次修订，作者在全文多次用了赞扬的语气，描述这样做了改变的好处，因此，作者的态度是肯定的，正确答案为B选项。

阿邱

参考译文：
世界卫生组织和UNAIDS报告的本年度艾滋病最新数据表明，在短短一年的时间内感染HIV(引发艾滋病的病毒)的人数从3950万人减少到3320万人，表面上来看这确实令人欣喜。实际上也确实如此，因为这意味着需要治疗的人喝传播疾病的人比原来估计的要少。但这个数量的减少却不是真正的减少，而是因为估计该传染病规模的方法发生了改变。
如果将这种改变考虑进来，受感染的人数实际上比去年增长了50万人。但是即便如此，这对于艾滋病世界来说也不一定是坏消息。随着全世界治疗方案的大量出现，死亡率开始有所下降。根据修改后的数据统计，死亡高峰出现在2005年即一年220万人死亡。现在这个数字为210万。因为受感染的患者要真正退出统计数字（而不是通过数据统计办法），唯一的方法就是死亡，存活患者人数的增加不免增加了感染者的总数。
但是最好的消息就是新数据肯定了先前被怀疑的事实——感染人数已经过了最高点。1998年新感染者的最高总人数为340万人，现在降到250万人。
死亡率的变化和感染率的变化部分是由于每一种传染病都存在的自然起落规律，但是也反映了许多公共卫生工作者的努力，他们成功说服了成百万上千万的人们改变或者放弃危险的性行为、如没有任何保护措施的性行为，他们还建立了医疗基础措施来分发反逆转药物，这种药物可以让那些已经被感染的患者症状消失。
数据修改是实施了更好数据收集方法的结果，特别是在印度（该数据的下降有一半是因为印度数据的改变）和五个非洲国家（数据下降的1/5是因为这些国家）。印度建立了更多的取样点，而所有国家都实行了更好的调查方法，主要依靠上门调查而不是在诊所询问问题，这样收集到了更全面的病例数据。
持怀疑态度的人会因为数据修改而证实了他们先前的怀疑。他们曾怀疑过去的调查方法有一定偏颇，由此导致的数据上涨也是在容许范围内，因此这样就可以使许多潜在的捐赠人动心。但是，现在为抗击艾滋病建立了收集和分发资金的结构，如果想要这些正确使用资金，那么正确的数据是非常重要的。新信息也意味着治疗所有患者的目标实现起来会更简单，更廉价。世界卫生组织和UNAIDS目前计划在明年年初发布一个报告，但是UNAIDS取证、监测和政策主任Paul De Lay称2010年财政需求要比先前预计的少5%，到2015年该数字将达到10%。这对于那是的每个人来说，不管是捐献者还是患者都是好消息。