标题: 经济广角:美元势将成为下一个日圆? [打印本页] 作者: 阿邱 时间: 2009-10-28 09:03 标题: 经济广角:美元势将成为下一个日圆? Is the Dollar Set to Become the New Yen?
Investors have long borrowed and sold the Japanese currency en masse, using the proceeds to snap up higher-yielding assets outside the land of the rising sun. Dubbed 'the carry trade,' the strategy generated hefty returns until the world economic crisis soured investor bets, sending them scurrying back to buy yen and close out their positions.
Now, some currency watchers say investors are getting tempted into to giving the carry trade another try, only this time investors are considering using the dollar as the base of the trade. That could help explain some of the slide the buck has suffered lately and — if true — it'd likely mean more downward dollar pressure to come.
'The yen-based carry trade is relatively weak,' said Sebastien Galy, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York. 'The yen has not picked up and the dollar is resuming and [the dollar] has no clear competitor right now as a funding currency.'
In the currency market carry trade, 'funding currencies' traditionally feature the low interest rates and low volatility traders want. (Volatility in the funding currency can wipe out the spread investors count on for their profits.)
For those reasons, the yen long held a cherished place in the hearts of carry traders. The Japanese currency featured rock-bottom interest rates put in place by the Bank of Japan, which has kept rates low in a long effort to re-energize the Japanese economy.
Unfortunately for the yen, the relentless selling pressure generated by those using the yen as a funding currency helped keep Japan's currency feeble. Some say similar pressures are falling on the dollar now.
'It's one thing that's working against the dollar,' said Philip Simotas, president of FX Concepts, a currency-focused hedge fund. 'It's a great currency to fund out of.'
In late August, by some measures, borrowing in dollars became cheaper than borrowing in Japanese yen for the first time in 16 years. Low U.S. rates, and the depth and liquidity of the dollar make the greenback attractive to traders who want to use it as the base for a carry trade.
To be sure, not everyone buys the notion that the dollar is now playing the part of the yen. 'I think it's certainly become a popular explanation of dollar weakness,' said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist for Wells Fargo in New York. 'It still feels a little bit like trying to fit the story to the facts rather than the other way around.'
But others point to the fact that the prospects for the yen have also grown more complicated lately after the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party was ousted by the Democratic Party of Japan in a landslide victory in an election in August. The incoming government is thought to be more open to the prospect of a strengthening yen.
Strengthening funding currencies are the last thing a carry trader wants to see. And unlike in the past, carry traders now have options, as central banks worldwide have hammered down rates in a concerted effort to galvanize the economy.
The Fed has also reinforced the message that interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future, and while there are signs of improvement in the U.S. economy, no one seems to be expecting an upturn sharp enough to force the Fed to start to tighten rates soon.
Investors also have noted the torrents of liquidity the Fed pumped into the system during the financial crisis, and are betting that will help keep a lid on the dollar going forward. Traders would rather see their funding currency drop in value, rather than increase, as rises eat into and eventually erase their profits. 'The fact that the U.S. dollar also appears to be in a protracted downtrend is serving as an additional encouragement for people to use the greenback as a funding currency,' said George Davis, chief FX technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.作者: 阿邱 时间: 2009-10-28 09:03
一直以来，投资者都在借入并卖出日圆，然后用购入的其他货币购买日本以外那些收益率更高的资产。在此次世界经济危机使投资者的风险偏好大为降低前，这种被称为“融资套利交易”的投资策略一直能够创造丰厚回报。经济危机发生后，投资者匆忙买回日圆以结清头寸。 一些汇率观察人士说，投资者现在又对融资套利交易跃跃欲试了，只不过他们这次考虑借入的货币是美元。这可能是美元汇率最近下跌的部分原因，如果真是这样，则可能意味着美元未来还会遭遇更多下行压力。 法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻纽约的高级货币策略师嘉里(Sebastien Galy)说，以日圆为买进货币的融资套利交易目前相对不活跃，日圆一直没有起色，而美元的势头正在回升，美元作为融资套利交易借入货币的地位目前没有面临明显的竞争。 在外汇市场的融资套利交易中，交易商看重的那些借入货币通常都具有利率低、汇率波动性小的特点。(借入货币的汇率波动会抹去投资者赖以盈利的差价。) 正是由于这些原因，日圆曾一直是融资套利交易者心仪的借入货币。日本的利率低到了不能再低的水平，日本央行(Bank of Japan)为使日本经济恢复活力，一直将利率维持在低水平。 对日圆来说不幸的是，它作为融资套利交易借入货币而遭遇的无情卖盘一定程度上导致日圆处于疲弱地位。有人说，同样的卖盘压力正降临到美元头上。 西莫塔斯(Philip Simotas)在专门投资汇市的对冲基金FX Concepts担任总裁，他说，美元正在遭遇同样的命运，美元是融资套利交易的理想借入货币。 一些指标显示，8月末时，借入美元的成本16年来首次低于借入日圆的成本。美国的低利率、美元的市场深度和流动性使它成了对融资套利交易者有吸引力的借入货币。 当然，并非所有的人都认为美元正在扮演日圆当年的角色。富国银行(Wells Fargo)驻纽约的货币策略师斯拉伯里科夫(Vassili Serebriakov)认为，美元成为融资套利交易的借入货币显然成了对美元疲软之因的流行解释，这让人觉得有点像是倒果为因。 但也有人指出，在日本民主党通过今年8月的选举以压倒性优势将长期执政的自民党赶下台后，日圆的未来前景最近已变得更加复杂。即将上任的日本新政府被认为更能接受日圆走强的前景。 借入货币不断走强是融资套利交易者最不愿看到的事。与以往不同，这类交易者现在有了多种选择，因为世界各国的央行为刺激经济都在下调利率。 美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)也一直强调说，在可预见的未来美国利率都将保持在低位。虽然有迹象显示美国经济出现了改善，但似乎没人认为这种改善已强劲到足以迫使美联储很快开始上调利率。 投资者还注意到了美联储在金融危机期间向金融体系注入的大量流动性，并断定未来一段时间这将对美元汇率构成上行阻力。融资套利交易者更乐见借入货币的汇率下跌而不是上涨，因为汇率上扬会缩小甚至最终消除他们从这一交易中获得的利润。RBC Capital Markets驻多伦多的首席外汇技术分析师戴维斯(George Davis)说，美元似乎正呈现旷日持久的下行趋势，这是鼓励人们将美元作为融资套利交易借入货币的又一理由。